Democratic candidates recorded substantial gains in the House of Representatives and secured leading positions in key gubernatorial contests during Tuesday’s midterm elections. Meanwhile, critical Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska remained unresolved as vote counting continued, according to an analysis of returns and voter surveys conducted by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.
Enten characterized the outcome as a “blue-nami,” noting that Democrats led in 263 House seats early Wednesday, compared to the 215 seats they held entering the election. Should those figures hold, the shift would represent a net gain of nearly 50 seats , what Enten described as “one of the largest gains” in the chamber since the post-Watergate midterm election of 1974. CNN projects Democrats will win at least 231 House seats.
Enten further noted that Democratic pickups extended across districts in the Northeast, South, and West Coast. In states where Republican legislatures carried out mid-decade redistricting , including Texas and Tennessee , Republicans held narrow margins in only two redrawn districts and failed to achieve overall net gains.
In gubernatorial contests across the country, Democrats led in 30 state races compared to 20 for Republicans. Enten observed that this total would represent the highest number of Democratic governorships since the mid-1990s.
Two closely watched Senate races remained unresolved. In Mississippi, Democratic challenger Scott Colom led incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by just 43 votes out of hundreds of thousands cast, with both candidates holding 48.9% of the vote. Enten noted that approximately 10% of the vote remained uncounted in Hinds County , the state’s largest Democratic stronghold , alongside provisional ballots that local election officials had yet to tally.
In Alaska, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan held a narrow lead over Democrat Mary Peltola, 48.5% to 47.7%, with Sullivan ahead by roughly 1,700 votes. Because Alaska employs ranked-choice voting, a candidate must surpass a 50%-plus-one threshold to win outright. If neither candidate secures a majority once all initial ballots are counted, the race will advance to an instant runoff, in which lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and their voters’ second choices are redistributed. Enten pointed out that outstanding ballots from rural outlying areas have historically leaned Democratic, leaving the contest unresolved.
Enten also examined national voter poll data, identifying a negative 24-point net approval rating for President Donald Trump as a primary driver of the midterm results. The survey data indicated that Trump’s approval among self-identified Republicans fell to 82%, down from approximately 90% during the 2018 midterms. Although Trump maintained a 96% approval rating among self-described MAGA Republicans, his approval dropped to 60% among non-MAGA Republicans, contributing to notable defections in states such as Texas and Kansas.
The voter data also revealed pronounced shifts among younger demographics. Voters under the age of 30 favored Democratic candidates by 47 percentage points , a 30-point swing from the 2024 election. Among young men, Democrats held a 33-point advantage in the national House vote after Trump narrowly carried that group two years prior, while young Latino men backed House Democratic candidates by more than 40 points.
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