Democratic candidate David Jolly has nearly doubled his chances of winning the Florida governor’s race over the past week, according to an analysis of prediction-market odds released Monday by The Action Network.
As of November 2, Jolly holds a 38.3% implied probability of victory, up from roughly 19% on October 24. Republican candidate Byron Donalds remains the front-runner with a 61.7% chance of winning, though his standing dropped nearly 20 percentage points from approximately 81% over the same nine-day period. This shift significantly narrows the gap between the two candidates on the eve of Election Day.
Under standard American moneyline odds calculated by The Action Network, Donalds stands at -161, meaning a bettor must wager $161 to win $100. Jolly is listed at +161, meaning a successful $100 bet yields $161 in profit.
“Between October 24 and November 2, our analysis shows David Jolly’s implied chance of winning has nearly doubled, rising from around 19% to 38.3%. Meanwhile, Byron Donalds has dropped from approximately 81% to 61.7%, a decline of nearly 20 percentage points. Donalds still holds the advantage, but the sharp narrowing of the gap highlights just how significantly market expectations have shifted ahead of Election Day.”
Prediction markets reflect the aggregate trading activity of participants buying and selling contracts on future political outcomes, with share prices converting into implied probabilities of each candidate winning.
Leave a Reply